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USD/CAD Looks to Accelerate the Downtrend Move

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USD/CAD Price Forecast

  • Eyes on Fed Bullard’s speech for US Dollar with retail sales data release for Canadian Dollar today.
  • USD/CAD price action.

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USD/CAD – Trading ineffectively

This week USD/CAD buyers has been capped at 1.3092 showing no impulse to keep pushing the price higher. In turn, the bearish move also has been showing slow down signs leading the pair lower however, ineffectively.

Alongside this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 31 to 40 then remained flat after, negating any effective momentum from the buyers.

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USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (April 15, 2017 – July 19, 2019) Zoomed Out

USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART (MAy 19 – JULy 19, 2019) Zoomed In

USD/CAD price daily chart 19-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart we notice on Wednesday USD/CAD failed to rally towards 1.3126 and tumbled towards the same old trading zone 1.3008 – 1.3064. The pair currently eyes the low- end of this zone hence, a close below this level may see the price trading towards 1.2920 however, the weekly support levels highlighted on the chart (Zoomed in) need to be kept in focus.

On the other hand, a close above 1.3126 could cause a rally towards 1.3166 although, the weekly resistance level underlined on the chart needs to be watched closely.

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USD/CAD Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (JUN 28 – JuLY 19, 2019)

USD/CAD price four- hour chart 19-07-19

Looking at the four-hour chart we notice since July 11 USD/CAD has been consolidating within nearly 70 pips range. Therefore, a break below 1.2976 may press the price towards 1.2920 although, the weekly support level at 1.2950 needs to be considered. See the chart to know more about the significant support levels in a further bearish scenario.

On the flip-side, a break above 1.3103 could cause a rally towards 1.3166 nonetheless, the weekly resistance levels marked on the chart would be worth monitoring.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi



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2-Year Downtrend Ready to be Broken?

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NZDUSD Technical ANALYSIS: NEUTRAL

  • New Zealand Dollar marks swing top with Bearish Engulfing pattern
  • Break of uptrend from mid-June lows points to near-term bias change
  • Risk/reward improvement probably needed to inspire follow-through

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The New Zealand Dollar overturned signs of topping identified last week, powering upward to hit the highest level since early April against its US counterpart. The latest surge came against the backdrop of dovish commentary form Fed officials setting the stage for the onset of interest rate cuts.

Buyers now aim to challenge the outer layer of resistance guiding NZDUSD downward since late July 2017, presently at 0.6825. A daily close above that would mark an important bullish turn in overall positioning, setting the stage for a rise to challenge triple top resistance north of the 0.69 figure.

The dominant trend bias remains bearish in the meantime however. In fact, overt signs of negative RSI divergence warn that upside momentum might be ebbing. That might precede a reversal lower, paining recent gains as corrective within the context of the broader downtrend.

In any case, an actionable trade setup seems absent for the moment. Chasing the pair higher on the long side might be premature without a defined resistance break. The same may be said for entering short absent defined signs of topping, let alone before any such turn is confirmed.

NZDUSD TRADING RESOURCES:

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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US Dollar Chart Looks Geared Up for Higher Prices

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USD Technical Highlights:

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) undergoing narrowing price action
  • Resolution appears skewed towards a bullish outcome

To see what fundamental drivers and technical signposts DailyFX analysts are watching, check out the Q2 forecasts for various markets on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

US Dollar Index (DXY) undergoing narrowing price action

The US Dollar Index is undergoing a congestion phase that is marked by a contraction in price action that should soon lead to a burst in one direction or the other. With support having come in on a couple of occasions (June/July) right around the 200-day, and the most recent test creating what looks to be a higher-low from the June low, the contraction appears poised to lead to an upside breakout.

The triangle formation on the 4-hr time-frame is clear, all that is needed for a bullish outcome is a firm breakout of the pattern and above the 7/9 high at 9759. A break above this threshold should at least give the DXY enough of a boost to run into the April/May highs before again possibly finding trouble around the 9830 mark.

In the event of a breakdown below the under-side trend-line of the triangle pattern, a break below 9672 could have the USD index rolling back downhill towards support in the 9580s. The bearish scenario is seen as the lesser probable, but can’t be ruled out which is why it is prudent to wait for one side of the market to confirm by breaking noted levels.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart (general tilt is higher)

US Dollar Index (DXY) 4-hr Chart (price action triangulating)

US Dollar Chart Looks Geared Up for Higher Prices

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GBP/JPY Price Printing New Multi-Month Low

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GBP/JPY Price Forecast

  • GBP Sterling Charts and Analysis
  • GBP/JPY price action.

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GBP/JPY – The Sellers are Back

On Monday, GBP/JPY sellers ended the trendless move and forced the pair to close below 135.55 after failing six times since last month. Today, the pair printed 133.85 – its lowest level in over six months.

On Monday, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped towards the oversold territory then remained flat, indicating the sellers are dominating with a bit of hesitation.

Just getting started?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

GBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (JAN 13, 2017 – JULY 18, 2019) Zoomed out

GBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (May 23 – JULY 18, 2019) Zoomed IN

GBP/JPY price daily chart 18-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart we notice at the start of this week GBP/JPY moved to a lower trading zone 133.40 – 135.55 eyeing a test of the low- end of this range.

Its worth noting that a close below the low-end could send the price to test the yearly support at 132.37, however the weekly support level at 133.00 would be worth monitoring.

In turn, any failure to close below the low-end may cause a rally towards the high-end of this zone although, the daily resistance level underlined on the chart should be considered. See the chart (zoomed in) to know more about the significant resistance levels in a further bullish scenario.

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GBP/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (JunLY 10 – July 18, 2019)

GBP/JPY price four-hour chart 18-07-19

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice yesterday GBP/JPY tried to recover some of the recent losses however, stopped at 134.62 and fell back therefore, a break above this level may send the price towards the high-end of the aforementioned trading zone although, the daily resistance marked on the chart needs to be monitored.

On the other hand, if the pair continues to fall, then a break below the 133.00 handle could press the price towards 132.02 however, the yearly support mentioned above (see the chart) should be watched closely.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi



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Nikkei 225 Fall Breaks Range, Puts Focus On Retracement Support

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Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • The index has broken lower, with many others
  • However, it has also taken out its most recent range
  • Nearby support should hold but bears watching

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The Nikkei 225 has slipped like many other equity benchmarks this week as US-China trade tensions have bubbled back to the surface, with various Asian data points highlighting their impact on regional economies.

From a technical perspective the Tokyo stock benchmark’s slip has seen it break below a near-term daily chart trading range which had previously held the market for a couple of weeks.

That range came in rather neatly between July 1’s two-month peak of 21,824.6 and the first, 22.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rise up from June 4’s lows. That comes in at 21,461.2 and gave way on Tuesday.

Since then the index has retreated quite sharply from that first retracement level, putting obvious focus on the second. That lies rather too close to the market for bulls’ comfort, at 21,236.4, a mere 38 points to the South, within easy reach of current daily candlestick ranges.

Still, there does seem to be a clear but modest range of support in that vicinity around which the market traded between June 10 and 28. Momentum still seems to be waning overall, however, which may mean that a slide down into that region is probably more likely than not now, even if it seems equally probably that falls will be limited to it in the absence of any bad fundamental news out of left field.

If the index can form a base there, the bulls will still have much work to do if they’re to claw back the last few days’ falls and get back to the 21,600 region which held sway before they started.

The ability to hold the index above that second retracement on a daily closing basis won’t necessarily be key to this, but it would be a good gauge of their current resolve and may be a good test of appetite for the rest of the week.

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Australian Dollar Eyes Jobs Data, RBA Rate Cut Bets

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AUDUSD IMPLIED VOLATILITY RISES AHEAD OF AUSSIE JOBS DATA

  • AUDUSD overnight implied volatility soars from 5.64 percent to 8.66 percent ahead of the Australia jobs report slated for Thursday at 1:30 GMT
  • The RBA could be encouraged to cut rates again if Australia’s labor market data disappoints
  • Sharpen your forex trading skills with this free educational guide on Traits of Successful Traders

Currency option traders are suggesting that Thursday’s economic calendar event risk for the Australian Dollar should not be taken lightly. This is indicated by the recent jump in AUDUSD overnight implied volatility to 8.66 percent and is roughly in line with the reading of 8.88 percent headed into last month’s Aussie jobs data release.

The rise in implied volatility indicates that spot AUDUSD may experience a sizable response to the upcoming Aussie jobs data – particularly if the headline employment change and unemployment rate figures cross the wire materially above or below consensus. If the closely watch economic indicators miss to the downside, it could push the odds of another RBA rate cut higher and send the Australian Dollar lower in turn.

AUD – AUSTRALIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT CHART

According to Bloomberg’s median consensus, markets are expecting Australia’s unemployment rate and change in employment numbers for June to come in at 5.2 percent and 9.0K respectively.

RBA COULD CUT RATES AGAIN IF AUSTRALIA EMPLOYMENT DATA DISAPPOINTS

Sustained dovishness hinted at in the latest RBA minutes could keep the Australian Dollar under pressure – more so if the upcoming Australia employment data fails to inspire optimism for AUD bulls. The RBA has already cut rates twice this year and expressed willingness to ease monetary policy further to “support sustainable growth in the economy” if needed.

Correspondingly, more RBA rate cuts could be on the table before the year ends if Australia’s central bank does in fact decide to keep juicing the economy with more rate cuts in response to lackluster labor market data.

AUD – RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA RATE CUT PROBABILITY CHART

RBA Rate Cut Odds Chart

The probability that the RBA lowers the overnight cash rate by another 25 basis points by its December 3 meeting stands at 63 percent currently. Yet, even if the Aussie jobs data inspires optimism for AUDUSD bulls, the latest trade tiff between the US and China with President Trump threatening additional tariffs could keep RBA rate cut bets bid and upside in spot AUDUSD at bay.

However, the uptrend starting to develop in spot AUDUSD could be reiterated if Thursday’s Aussie jobs data noticeably tops market estimates. Looking to the technical, spot AUDUSD might find some buoyance from the rising exponential moving averages, but price action could struggle to eclipse resistance posed by the 50.0 percent retracement from April’s high – a major area of confluence around the 0.7000 handle.

SPOT AUDUSD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (FEBRUARY 17, 2019 TO JULY 17, 2019)

Spot AUDUSD Price Chart Technical Analysis

That said,the path of least resistance could be a test of support near the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level which closely aligns with the lower bound of the option implied trading range. Spot AUDUSD is calculated to range as high as 0.7042 or as low as 0.6978 during Thursday’s trading session in response to the Australian jobs report with a 68 percent statistical probability. This 64-pip trading range is estimated from a 1-standard deviation move from spot AUDUSD using the overnight implied volatility reading of 8.66 percent.

— Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

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USDCAD, CADJPY Levels to Watch

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CAD Analysis and Talking Points

  • USDCAD | Upside Limited, Support Situated at Psychological 1.30 Level
  • CADJPY | Consolidation Continues Awaiting Catalyst to Spark Breakout

See the DailyFXFX forecast to learn what will drive the currency throughout the quarter.

USDCAD | Upside Limited, Outlook Remains Bearish

Having hit fresh 2019 lows at 1.3014, the bearish momentum has eased somewhat with the USD index recouping its recent losses. However, the bounce back is likely to be shallow with resistance at 1.3090-1.3100 potentially curbing further upside. Alongside this, other levels that could prove to be hurdle for the pair is the 200WMA (1.3115), while offers are also likely to come in from 1.3145-1.3150. Longer term studies as evidenced by the weekly DMI, continues to hold a bearish bias, thus the outlook remains tilted to the downside, which in turn raises the scope for a break of the 1.3000 handle to test the 100DMA (1.2988). On the option front, USDCAD O/n ATM vols are at 7.85 = 43pip breakeven (cover CPI release).

USDCAD PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Jan 2019 – Jul 2019)

Chart by IG

CADJPY | Consolidation Continues Awaiting Catalyst to Spark Breakout

The cross has continued to consolidate over the past week, awaiting a potential breakout. The CAD remains firmer against the JPY with the daily DMI showing a bullish bias. As such, eyes are for a test of the 200DMA at 83.25, in which a close above raises the upside risk of a test of the 50% Fib (83.72). On the downside, support is situated from 82.45-50.

CADJPY PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Sep 2018 Jul 2019)

Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USDCAD, CADJPY Levels to Watch

Chart by IG

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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Euro and US Dollar Rebound against Swiss Franc

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Price Forecast

  • USD/CHF and EUR/CHF price action.
  • EUR/CHF and USD/CHF Charts and Analysis

Did you check our latest forecasts on USD and EUR and Gold? Find out more for free from our Q3 forecasts for commodities and main currencies

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF Closing with Loss

Last week EUR/CHF peaked at 1.11598 then declined as expected in our last update closing the weekly candlestick with nearly 0.5% loss of its value. On the other hand, USD/CHF suffered even more and closed with 1.5% loss on Friday.

Today, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointed higher for both however, it might be early to talk about a possible uptrend with EUR/CHF still below 50 and USD/CHF has not crossed above yet.

Just getting started?See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (JAN 5, 2017 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed Out

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (April 16 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed IN

USDCHF price daily chart 17-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at daily chart, we notice USD/CHF on Monday U-turned at 0.9817 then rallied in the following day closing in a higher trading zone 0.9860 – 0.9930 and currently, the pair may be on its way to test the high- end of this zone.

Hence, a close above the high-end could open the door for the price to rally towards 1.0008 although, the weekly resistance levels marked on the chart (zoomed in) should be watched along the way.

In turn, a close below the low-end of the zone might send the price towards 0.9785 however, the weekly support levels mentioned on the chart (zoomed in) need to be kept in focus.

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EUR/CHF Daily Price Chart (JUL 17 , 2017 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed Out

EUR/CHF price daily chart 17-07-19 Zoomed out

EUR/CHF Daily Price Chart (MAY 3 – JULY 17, 2019) Zoomed IN

EUR/CHF price daily chart 17-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart, we notice EUR/CHF pressed lower on Friday then rebounded yesterday from the low end of the trading zone 1.1057- 1.1190. Therefore, the pair may be on its way to test the high-end of this zone contingent on clearing the daily resistance levels underlined on the chart (zoomed in).

Its worth noting that if EUR/CHF breaks and remains above the neckline of a double bottom pattern residing at 1.1172 this could open the door for the price to rally towards 1.1278 however, the price should first clear the high -end of the aforementioned trading zone with the weekly resistance levels highlighted on the chart.

On the flip-side, a close below the low-end of the trading zone might press the price towards 1.1001 nonetheless, the weekly support zone underscored on the chart needs to be considered.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi



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Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.
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Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout

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Gold Price/Silver Technical Outlook:

  • Gold price building near-term wedge after macro-wedge breakout
  • Silver trying to rise out of long-term wedge

For forecasts, educational content, and more, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Gold price building near-term wedge after macro-wedge breakout

Last month, gold price exploded out of a wedge formation dating back several years. This put the precious metal in good position to rally much higher, with a measured move target approaching the 1700 level. This will of course take time, but the path of least resistance is higher for as long as the breakout holds.

With that in mind, trading bullish set-ups in the shorter-term could yield good results if macro forces are to remain constructive. Currently, gold is nearing the end of a developing wedge that has been building since the last week of June.

A breakout above the top-side trend-line of the pattern and 1427 should have gold rolling again. In the event of a breakout the next targeted level will be a minor level of resistance created in 2013 around the 1488 level, with more significant resistance from 1522 up to around 1540.

The wedge needs to break, first, though, before getting too geared up for higher prices. A downside resolution or false breakdown before jamming higher, could develop. In the event of a breakdown, given the proximity of the top of the macro-wedge, it may not pay (poor risk/reward) to run with a short. In the event of a false breakdown (a common occurrence for wedges), then once price recoups back above the top-side trend-line of the pattern, then a bullish bias will reassert itself.

Gold Price Weekly Chart (strong wedge-break)

Gold Price Daily Chart (wedging up in near-term)

Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout

Silver trying to rise out of long-term wedge

Silver has been playing catch-up with gold in recent sessions. While gold consolidates in the near-term silver is trying to break the trend-line from July 2016 that makes up the top of a long-term wedge pattern. A weekly close above the top-side t-line will gear up silver for a sustained move higher along with its big sibling. If price fails back below by Friday, then a neutral bias will remain. In any event, if gold is to maintain its big-picture breakout, then silver will start to offer good-looking bullish set-ups at some point.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

Silver Price Weekly Chart (trying to break top of wedge formation)

Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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Double Top Forming Below 0.7050?

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AUDUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH

  • AUDUSD hints at double top with Bearish Engulfing candle pattern
  • Confirming longer-term reversal calls for one-month trendlinebreak
  • July’s swing top near 0.7050 continues to mark immediate resistance

Get help building confidence in your AUDUSD strategy with our free trading guide!

The Australian Dollar tried its luck on the upside once again. Last week’s attempt at bearish reversal was cut short above the 0.69 figure and followed by a retest of downward-sloping trend resistance capping gains since early December 2018. Sellers might yet prevail however as the appearance of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern hints a Double Top reversal is in the works.

Zooming in to the four-hour chart appears to bolster the case for a downside scenario. Prices have demonstrably breached support defining the upswing from last week’s bottom, signaling that the move has been exhausted. Near-term support is holding back a deeper selloff thus far however, warning that the case for a reversal rather than mere consolidation is as-yet unconfirmed.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

Breaking the broader upward trajectory established along swing lows over the past month seems like it would be a more convincing indicator of downward follow-through. That would amount to clearing the block of back-to-back support levels in the 0.6934-53 zone. Several minor inflection points aside, achieving such a break probably sets the stage to challenge the pivotal January 2016 bottom at 0.6827.

AUDUSD TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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