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New Zealand Dollar Expected to be Most Volatile Currency Amid NZ CPI Report

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Currency Volatility CAD Talking Points

  • NZDUSD overnight implied volatility highest since RBNZ meeting
  • Risk reversals flip to positive on the short-term tenor
  • Inflation key to upcoming RBNZ rate decision

Top 10 most volatile currency pairs and how to trade them

For a more in-depth analysis on FX, check out the Q3 FX Forecast

NZD Expected to be the Most Volatile Currency

NZDUSD | As we highlighted in the weekly volatility outlook, NZDUSD is expected to be the most volatile currency. Ahead of the NZ inflation report, overnight implied vols have jumped by 4.9 vols to 12.25, which is the highest since the June RBNZ rate decision. This implies that NZDUSD ATM break-evens = 34pips(meaning that option traders need to see a move of at least 34pips in either direction in order to realise gains). Interestingly, risk reversals have flipped to positive at 0.1 (albeit relatively neutral), showing that demand is rising for topside protection in the short run.

New Zealand Dollar Expected to be Most Volatile Currency Amid NZ CPI Report

The NZ Q2 inflation report is scheduled for 23:45BST (18:45EST), where expectations are for a jump to 1.7% from 1.5%. The range for the headline rate is 1.6-2.1%, suggesting there is a risk of an upside surprise. As a reminder, the RBNZ’s preferred measure of inflation (Sectoral Factor) will be released later at 04:00BST (23:00EST), which will also be key to the near-term outlook for the central bank’s monetary policy. As it stands, money markets have attached a 73% likelihood of a 25bps cut to the OCR at the August 7th meeting. Therefore, an upward surprise towards the central bank’s 2% target could see an unwind of these bets, which in turn is likely to support the currency. However, a softer than expected reading is likely to confirm an additional rate cut from the RBNZ as they remain open to a lower OCR.

NZDUSD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Aug 2018July2019)

New Zealand Dollar Expected to be Most Volatile Currency Amid NZ CPI Report

On the technical front, the 200DMA is situated at 0.6714, whereby a close above puts 0.6750 in focus before resistance at 0.6780. On the downside, near-term support resides at 0.6650.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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2019-07-15 18:00:00

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Litecoin (LTC) Price Falters Alongside BTC, Slips to 2-Month Low

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Litecoin (LTC) Price Outlook:

  • Litecoin is down roughly 15% from Friday and trades near $90 for the first time since May
  • Support around $84.50 has provided some buoyancy for the time being
  • LTCUSD sold off alongside Bitcoin which is now in oversold territory according to one technical indicator

Litecoin (LTC) Price Falters Alongside BTC, Slips to 2-Month Low

The price of Litecoin dropped approximately 15% over the weekend as a widespread cryptocurrency selloff took shape. The crypto world was thrust into mainstream headlines after President Trump tweeted he was “not a fan of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.” Similarly, Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency continues to face regulatory scrutiny, but some crypto believers stand steadfast as they adhere to the “no publicity is bad publicity” approach. Either way, Litecoin remains firmly within positive territory – boasting a 180% return in the year-to-date.

Litecoin Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (March – July) (Chart 1)

In the near-term however, the situation appears direr as LTCUSD looks to hold above support around $84.50. The level marks Litecoin’s lows in mid to late-May and has held influence over price in the past. Should horizontal support be proven insufficient, the coin will look to test the 200-day moving average – currently residing at $75. A break beneath the latter level could accelerate losses as bullish sentiment is called into question.

On the other hand, topside resistance appears somewhat sparse. Aside from the $100 psychological level, subsequent resistance resides around $116 with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. But while the road higher appears to be the path of least resistance, proximity to critical support – namely the 200-day moving average – is concerning. As price action unfolds, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis in the cryptocurrency space.

That said, cryptocurrency may remain in the headlines for the time being with Facebook’s David Marcus – head of Calibra – set to testify before Congress on Monday regarding Libra’s adoption and regulatory policy. Despite the scrutiny, IG clients remain overwhelmingly bullish on all cryptocurrencies with almost 93% of traders net-long Litecoin.

Litecoin (LTC) Price Falters Alongside BTC, Slips to 2-Month Low

Retail trader data shows 92.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 12.84 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 5.3% lower than yesterday and 9.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is unchanged than yesterday and 24.2% lower from last week. While IG client sentiment data is typically used as a contrarian indicator, traders are rarely net-short digital assets – similar to client positioning on gold. To learn more about this phenomenon and why it occurs, sign up for my IG Client Sentiment Walkthrough Webinar.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, DAX 30 Fundamental Forecast

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2019-07-15 17:15:00

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EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold & Oil

Hits: 9


New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

US Dollar Starts the Week at Support – Gold Price Consolidation in Focus

The levels are clear heading into the start of the week across the US Dollar Majors and after last week’s sell-off in DXY, the index opens the week just above near-term support. Gold prices are on the defensive but remain within the confines of a well-defined consolidation pattern within the monthly opening-range. We’re also on the lookout for near-term exhaustion in crude as oil prices continue to probe a key resistance range at 60.06/45. In this webinar we review updated technical setups on DXY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold, Crude Oil (WTI), SPX (S&P 500), USD/CHF and GBP/JPY.

Key Trade Levels in Focus

DXY – Focus is on near-term support around ~96.72. Initial resistance 97.10 with bearish invalidation at 97.37/45. Downside support objectives at 96.51 & 96.31. Key yearly open support at 96.14 (critical).

EUR/USD – Initial support at 1.1241 – constructive while above 1223/30. Subsequent topside resistance objectives at 1.1296-1.1303 & 1.1328/31.

AUD/USD – Aussie testing key resistance at the yearly open / 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 7042/44. Initial support at 7005 backed by 6965bullish invalidation now raised to 6914. A topside breach targets the 7075 backed by the April open at 7121.

NZD/USD – Risk for topside exhaustion here as we test the monthly opening-range highs. Initial yearly open support at 6705 backed by the weekly open at 6687– a break there would risk a larger correction towards slope support. Topside resistance with the upper parallel (currently ~6750s) backed by 6766 – looking for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

GoldGold prices are in consolidation just below the late 2013-swing highs at 1433. XAU/USD has carved a well-defined monthly opening-range – look for the break. Downside support 1373 backed by 1366. A topside breach would keep the focus on subsequent resistance objectives at 1451 & 1482.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Key Event Risk This Week

Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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2019-07-15 16:00:00

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Gold Price Consolidation Sets Stage for Rally to Fresh 2019 Highs

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Gold Price Talking Points:

  • Despite rebounds in higher beta assets and higher yielding currencies alike, gold prices have maintained their elevation. Stability in the face of adversity bodes well for the future.
  • Gold volatility, as measured by the Cboe’s ETF, GVZ (which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD ETF option chain) has started to perk back up.
  • Retail trader positioningsuggests that the gold price rally may be set to resume.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on Gold and Silver prices? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

It’s been nearly a week since the last substantive gold price technical analysis update, and for good reason: not much has changed. Since the week of the June Fed meeting, gold prices have traded in a 4% range since the market close on June 21; and since June 21, gold prices are up by a slight 0.8%. Despite rebounds in higher beta assets and higher yielding currencies alike, gold prices have maintained their elevation. Stability in the face of adversity – an improved environment for risk appetite – bodes well for gold’s future prospects.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Firm Up

Both Fed funds futures and Eurodollar contracts are suggesting that the Federal Reserve will begin an aggressive interest rate cut cycle at the July 30 to 31 FOMC meeting, developments that have undergirded the most significant factor in the gold price rally since the end of May. With Fed funds pricing in greater than a 50% chance of 75-bps of rate cuts in 2019 and Eurodollar contract spreads (June 2019/December 2019) discounting -70-bps through the end of the year, expectations remain firm for more accommodative policy action. To this end, with short-term US Treasury yields biased lower over the past several months, the ongoing erosion in US real yields continues to serve as a fundamentally bullish backdrop for gold prices.

Gold Volatility Rebound Establishing a Base for Gold Prices?

If volatility is the market’s manifestation of uncertainty, gold volatility’s expansions and contractions since the end of May can be traced back through the uncertainty created by the US-China trade war and the ensuing speculation around the Fed rate cut cycle. While other asset classes don’t like increased volatility (signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc.), precious metals tend to benefit from periods of higher volatility as uncertainty increases the appeal of gold’s and silver’s safe haven appeal.

GVZ (Gold Volatility) Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (October 2016 to July 2019) (Chart 1)

Gold volatility (as measured by the Cboe’s gold volatility ETF, GVZ, which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD option chain) remains off of its yearly high set at the end of June at 17.08, but has rebounded off of the July low at 13.00 to 14.70. Because gold volatility has failed to contract more during a time of significant strength in equity markets, it stands to reason that a base is forming for higher gold prices. The recent observation that “gold prices are proving resilient during the recent correction, a sign that recent price action has been corrective rather than the end of the longer-term bottoming effort and inverse head and shoulders” is still valid.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (July 2018 to July 2019) (Chart 2)

gold price, gold technical analysis, gold chart, gold price forecast, gold price chart

The ongoing sideways consolidation in gold prices is setting the stage to fresh 2019 highs. But not much has changed, technically speaking, since our lastgold price technical analysis update. Thus, “while the long-term forecast for gold prices remains bullish as long as the inverted head and shoulders pattern neckline is intact, traders may still want to be patient here as the odds of more weakness if not sideways price action have increased…A consolidation after an uptrend is typically the sign of a continuation effort; the sideways consolidation has a bullish bias.”

A break above 1439.14 would signal the start of the bullish continuation in the multi-month gold price rally. Furthermore, it is still valid that “unless gold prices lose 1381.62 as well as the daily 21-EMA, a moving average that hasn’t been closed below since the bullish outside engulfing bar/key reversal on May 30, then there is still good reason to believe that the long-term bullish forecast remains valid. Even so, the inverse head and shoulders pattern neckline doesn’t come back into play until 1350 at the end of July.”

IG Client Sentiment Index: Spot Gold Price Forecast (July 15, 2019) (Chart 3)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs gold, gold price chart, gold price forecast, gold price technical analysis

Spot gold: Retail trader data shows 65.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.93 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.4% lower than yesterday and 2.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.0% higher than yesterday and 1.2% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests spot gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current spot gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides

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2019-07-15 15:25:00

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GBPUSD Bearish Momentum Resumes, Silver Prices Break Key Level

Hits: 9


MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GBP Selling Resumes, NZD Outperforms, Silver Breaks Key Level

DailyFX 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

NZD / AUD: Overnight, Chinese growth figures showed Q2 GDP at 6.2%, down from 6.4%, marking the weakest quarterly reading since 1992. Consequently, this raises scope for further stimulus measures from the Chinese government, which in turn has supported high beta currencies (AUD, NZD), most notably the New Zealand Dollar. On the technical front, NZDUSD broke above the 200DMA at 0.6714 to hit its highest level since mid-April. Going forward, focus will be on the NZ CPI scheduled later today.

GBP: The Pound trades with a soft undertone ahead of this week’s key economic releases, starting with the UK jobs report tomorrow. Uncertainties over Brexit persist and as long as they do, GBP gains are likely to be limited. This has also been evidenced by the weekly speculative COT data, which shows investors continuing to build their net short positions (highest since September 2018).

Silver: The precious metal is firmer by nearly 1% this morning with prices clearing key resistance at $15.33, which represents the 38.2% Fib level. As we had previously noted, the surge in institutional demand for silver as indicated by ETF purchases bodes well for silver. Eyes are on for a close above the 38.2% Fib to raise scope for a $15.50 test.

Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters

IG Client Sentiment

GBPUSD Bearish Momentum Resumes, Silver Prices Break Key Level - US Market Open

How to use IG Client Sentiment to Improve Your Trading

WHAT’S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY

  1. Sterling – GBPUSD Price Capped as UK Data, Tory Leadership Vote Loom” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  2. Gold Prices Eye Key Resistance, Silvers Prices Outperforming Gold” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  3. Euro Price Forecast: EUR/JPY Struggles to Move in a Clear Direction- How Could This Change” byMahmoud Alkudsi, Market Analyst
  4. Using FX To Effectively Trade Global Market Themes at IG” by Tyler Yell, CMT , Forex Trading Instructor

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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2019-07-15 13:00:00

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S&P 500 Closes at Record High, Gold Stalls, Dollar Breakouts Fail

Hits: 9


Gold Price Weekly Technical Forecast: Digestion into Bull Pennant

Gold price action has funneled into a symmetrical wedge pattern so far in July; but are buyers yet ready to relent after an extremely strong finish to Q2?

Dollar Faces Plenty of Volatility, But Clear Trend is Another Matter…

The Dollar’s recovery attempt came to an abrupt halt this past week following heavily-circulated Fed headlines. Now imbued with greater volatility in news fixation, what can we expect from actual trends?

Global Stocks Outlook: S&P 500, Nikkei 225 and Euro Stoxx 50 Trends

The global equity technical forecast is tilting neutral for the week ahead as uptrends in the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 face obstacles as the Euro Stoxx 50 might confirm bearish signals.

Crude Oil Price Outlook: Charts Eye Technical Resistance

Crude oil price technical outlook hints that the commodity’s recent string of gains could be in jeopardy if bullish momentum is rejected at nearby resistance.

SPX

2019-07-15 12:30:00

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EUR/JPY Straggles to Move in a Clear Direction- How Could This Change

Hits: 11


EUR/JPY Price Outlook

  • EUR/JPY Charts and Analysis
  • EUR/JPY price continues its trendless move.

Have you checked our latest trading guides for USD and Gold? Download for free Q3 Main Currencies and Commodities Forecasts

EUR/JPY– Buyers Failed Attempt

On July 8, EUR/JPY opened with an upward gap then rallied on Wednesday to its highest level in a week, however; the pair slipped back below 122.00 handle and closed with a bearish Doji pattern, signaling the weakness of the buyers to keep rallying the price.

Alongside, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointed higher, although; failed to cross above 50 indicating the buyer’s lack of momentum to kick start uptrend move.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here’s the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (DEC 1 , 2016 – JUl 15, 2019) Zoomed OUT

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (April 7, 2019- JUL 15, 2019) Zoomed IN

EUR/JPY price daily chart 15-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart we notice at the start of July, EUR/JPY stuck in tight trading zone 122.52- 121.25, and since July 3 the pair failed to test any of the high or the low end of this zone.

Thus, a close below the low end of the aforementioned trading zone may press the price towards 119.78, although; the weekly support zone and levels marked on the chart (zoomed in) need to be watched along the way.

In turn, a close above the high end of the trading zone could cause the price to rally towards 124.40, however; the weekly resistance zone and levels underlined on the chart (zoomed in) would be worth monitoring.

Just getting started? See our Beginners’ Guide for FX traders

EUR/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (June 20, 2019 – JUL 15, 2019)

EUR/JPY price four- hour chart 15-07-19

Looking at the four-hour chart we notice on July 3, EUR/JPY rebounded from 121.31 (weekly low) therefore; a break below this threshold would lead the price to print its lowest level in nearly four weeks and could send the price towards the June 21 low at 120.95, contingent on clearing the weekly support at 121.25. See the chart to know more about the next significant support if the selloff continues below mentioned levels.

On the other hand, we notice EUR/JPY on July 5 started a short uptrend creating higher highs with higher lows, however; this uptrend stalled on July 10 at 122.32 (weekly high) hence; a break above this high might activate this uptrend and could send the price towards 123.00, however; the vicinity at 122.52-54 should be kept in focus.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

2019-07-15 10:00:00

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GBPUSD Price Capped as UK Data, Tory Leadership Vote Loom

Hits: 15


Sterling (GBPUSD) Price, Chart and Analysis

  • Jobs, wages and inflation data all released in the first of the week.
  • Conservative Party leadership contest enters its final week.

Brand New Q3 2019 GBP and USD Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

GBPUSD Likely to be Capped Around 1.2630-1.2650

Last week’s modest rebound in GBPUSD from asix-month low of 1.2438 is under pressure, despite the run of five higher lows remaining intact. Sterling traders will be looking at this week’s UK wages, jobs and inflation data for an update on the health of the UK economy after warnings earlier this month from BoE governor Mark Carney that global trade tensions could be more persistent and damaging than previously expected. Carney also warned of the widening gulf between market and the Bank of England expectations on interest rates, raising expectations of an interest rate cut later this year.

UK Data w/c Monday July 15, 2019.

Sterling - GBPUSD Price Capped as UK Data, Tory Leadership Vote Loom

While UK data will be the primary driver of Sterling this week, traders should also factor in any moves in the Conservative Party leadership contest, with voting ending on Sunday, July 21. Recent polls show Boris Johnson holding a commanding lead over Jeremy Hunt. The latest odds from bookmaker Paddy Power have Johnson at a prohibative 1/33 to become the next Conservative leader compared to a generous 14/1 for Hunt. The first candidate to receive more than 50% of the 160,000 Conservative membership votes will be declared the new leader.

IG Client Sentiment data paints a mixed picture despite Sterling traders being 82.2% net-long of GBPUSD, a negative contrarian bias. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long than last week, giving us a mixed GBPUSD trading bias.

The daily chart shows the recent run on higher lows under pressure, weakening the short-term outlook for GBPUSD. Any upside movement is likely to be capped by the 50-day moving average, currently around 1.2646, although a gap on the July 2 candle between 1.2602 and 1.2630 may interest bullish GBPUSD traders.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (October 2018 – July 15, 2019)

Sterling - GBPUSD Price Capped as UK Data, Tory Leadership Vote Loom

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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2019-07-15 09:30:00

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Gold Prices Eye Key Resistance, Silvers Prices Outperforming Gold

Hits: 7


Gold & Silver Price Analysis and Talking Points:

  • Gold Prices Focus on Pivotal Resistance
  • Silver Price Outlook | Outperforming Gold as Prices Eye Key Resistance

See our quarterly gold forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q3!

Gold Prices Focus on Pivotal Resistance

Gold prices have managed to consolidate above the $1400 as slowing Chinese growth provides yet another reminder of the deteriorating economic outlook. Overnight, Chinese Q2 GDP fell to 6.2% from 6.4%, marking the weakest quarterly growth since 1992. However, while gold prices pulled off its lows of the day since the release, the precious metal remains contained, given that weaker Chinese data raises the scope for fresh stimulus. Alongside this, the rest of the data had been relatively firm with both retail sales and industrial output beating analyst estimates, which in turn, suggests that the stimulus that the government has already provided is potentially having a positive impact going into the second half of the year. Going forward, with little on the economic calendar, focus will turn towards Fed’s Williams, who is a voter this year.

On the technical front, technical resistance remains pivotal for the precious metal. Given the series of lower highs and with the weekly time frame showing the RSI hovering in overbought territory, there is a risk of a slight pullback. Although, any pullbacks are likely to be well supported amid the backdrop of slowing global growth coupled with the Fed looking to ease monetary policy.

GOLD Technical Levels

Resistance 2: $1435-40 (Double-Top)

Support 1: $1380 (July low)

Support 2: $1373 (23.6% Fib)

GOLD PRICE CHART: Daily Time-Frame (Aug 2018 -Jul 2019)

What You Need to Know About the Gold Market

Silver Price Outlook | Outperforming Gold as Prices Eye Key Resistance

Silver prices have continued to edge higher since finding support at the psychological $15 level, which is now eyeing key resistance in the form of the 38.2% Fib level at $15.33. Last week, we had highlighted that the surge in ETF buying of silver bolds well for the outlook, while at the same time we continue to expect silver to outperform gold on a pullback in the gold/silver ratio which hovers around a 20yr high.

Silver Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (Oct 2018 – Jul 2019)

Gold Prices Eye Key Resistance, Silvers Prices Outperforming Gold

GOLD TRADING RESOURCES:

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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2019-07-15 08:10:00

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NOK, SEK Shake as Iran Tension Threatens to Spark EU-US Trade War

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NORDIC FX, NOK, SEK WEEKLY OUTLOOK

  • Economic docket in Sweden and Norway remains light this week
  • NOK, SEK eye Iran tensions and its impact on US-EU relations
  • Cross-Atlantic trade war remains a risk as global economy slows

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

In Sweden and Norway, the economic docket remains relatively light, which leaves the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone exposed to counter-currency risk and at the mercy of developing fundamental themes. The biggest threat to Nordic FX this week – and likely beyond – is the escalating tension in Iran that threatens to widen the rift between the EU and US and potentially lead to a reignition of a cross-Atlantic trade war.

HOW COULD IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM SPARK AN EU-US TRADE WAR?

Less than two weeks ago, news broke that Iran was purifying uranium past its legal limits as outlined in the 2015 nuclear accord known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. After US President Donald Trump shredded the Obama-era policy and reimposed sanctions, tensions between Iran and its western counterparts has been rising.

The most recent escalation occurred in June when several oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman during Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit. Shortly after, a US drone shot was down with Washington narrowly avoiding a direct conflict after Trump halted an immediate military response. However, now with Tehran pushing beyond the stipulated enrichment levels, there is no telling how forcefully the US will respond.

Meanwhile, the EU has created a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) known as INSTEX which circumvents US sanctions by allowing European firms to engage in non-US Dollar denominated trade with Iran. This implemented as a way to provide economic relief to Iran and convince policymakers in Tehran to preserve the agreement. However, the EU now may be running out of room to help if they violate the nuclear accord.

EU foreign ministers on meeting On July 15 to discuss how to proceed with Iran’s non-compliance. Adding to the delicate situation is Washington’s warning to Brussels that it too is at risk of incurring the wrath of US sanctions and a possible re-ignition of a cross-Atlantic trade war if it continues to undermine the US’s economic strategy with Iran.

EU-US TRADE WAR RISKS

Source: Directorate-General for Trade

The EU and US are also currently in the process of resolving a 14-year old trade dispute with the WTO that may soon conclude – but not in a way markets would welcome. Early in July, the Trade Representative’s office put out a tariff list of $4 billion worth of EU goods it is willing to target in response to EU subsidies provided to the European-based aeronautic giant Airbus.

The EU also has a case with the US – only it’s against Boeing. Both sides are preparing retaliatory tariffs, only this time, the prospective duties will fall under WTO and are not the result of unilateral trade moves by Washington. Europe’s preference is to resolve the matter through diplomacy, though the US may rely on forceful and headline-catching measures – like tariffs – to show strength and strongarm the EU into agreement.

Europe, however, is not without its teeth. Officials in Brussels are prepared to strategically levy tariffs against US agricultural products if Washington proceeds with their duties. Farmers a core constituency of Trump’s whose support he will need in the upcoming 2020 election and are therefore a key target – and vulnerability. Politics will continue to be a major theme driving volatility as the global economy becomes more fragile.

Want to learn how to trade around geopolitical risk? Be sure to follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri.

NORDIC FX MARKETS SWEAT AS TENSIONS RISE AND GLOBAL ECONOMY SLOWS

The export-driven NOK and SEK are vulnerable to a deterioration in US-EU trade relations especially since the latter is the primary destination for over 60 percent of all Norway’s and Sweden’s exports. The Krone in particularly is sensitive to changes in sentiment because of Norway’s strong reliance on the petroleum industry to support its economy. NOK is therefore frequently at the mercy of oscillations in global risk appetite.

Norway Benchmark OBX Equity Index, Crude Oil Prices, NOKSEK – Daily Chart

Chart Showing NOKSEK, OBX, Crude Oil Prices

Furthermore, slower growth out of Europe would be amplified if the US and EU engaged in a trade spat. Internal domestic problems ranging from Brexit to the financial threat posed by Italian debt have caused Nordic policymakers – namely out of the Riksbank – to revise down growth expectations. This is compounded by the fact that Sweden may be teetering on the edge of a financial crisis as household debt continues to rise.

Is There a Leviathan Hiding Under the Grotto of Loose Monetary Policy?

Chart Showing Swedish Financial System

SWEDISH KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

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2019-07-15 06:30:00

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